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Rupee Expected To Open Lower

INR

Forwards indicate a lower open for the rupee, USD/INR 1-month forwards up around 10 pips at 73.92. The rupee could be supported today by a drop in gold and oil prices.

  • The rate dropped sharply from the open yesterday with chatter of USD selling by state-run banks, likely for the RBI around 73.70 levels. After touching lows of 73.20 yesterday USD/INR rose into the close and finished the session at 73.55.
  • Last week the rate jumped higher as risk assets took a beating and USD gained, there was speculation this could impact the rupee's status as a carry-trade favorite. With the RBI not expecting to change policy any time soon, especially after slightly weaker than expected GDP data, USD/INR will be beholden to prevailing risk sentiment and the machinations of the USD.

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