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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
INR
USD/INR opened lower towards 81.60, before rebounding back to 81.70/75, slightly below yesterday's closing levels. The rupee outperformed yesterday, USD/INR had its largest single day gain since 11 Nov, down ~0.7%.
- In the past 2 sessions the Rupee has strengthened by ~94 paise, breaking below its 50-day EMA in the process, as it finally plays some catch up with the lower USD trade. The chart below overlays spot USD/INR versus USD/CNH.
- Flows related to Adani Enterprises R20,000 crore public offer, as well as Caryles purchase of a majority stake in VLCC may have also boosted demand for the INR (see this link for more details). A decline in demand for USD from oil importers also weighed on the pair.
- The near term technical outlook for the pair looks bearish, it is currently dealing below its 20 and (82.465) 50-day EMAs (82.22).
- Note the 100-day EMA sits just under 81.50. We haven't been below this level since early 2022, see the second chart below.
- On the wires tomorrow we have Nov Industrial Production and Dec CPI, before Dec Trade Balance on Friday. The inflation print will be more important in terms of the RBI outlook (see this link for some sell-side views).
Fig 1: USD/INR vs USD/CNH
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Fig 2: USD/INR & Key EMAs
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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