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INR: Rupee Hits Fresh Low, USD/INR Most Overbought Since 2022

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  • USD/INR gapped higher at the open, reaching a fresh record high above the 85.00 mark and prompting intervention from the RBI to prevent steeper losses.
  • While the hawkish Fed cut weighed on wider Asia FX sentiment, outflows from bonds and stocks as well a softer yuan have been broader sources of weakness over the past few weeks.
  • Indeed, the 1.2% rally in USDINR since the start of Q4 puts the pair at its most overbought since 2022, as evidenced by the 14-day RSI, though routine central bank intervention has kept INR vols muted compared to that of its EM peers.
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  • USD/INR gapped higher at the open, reaching a fresh record high above the 85.00 mark and prompting intervention from the RBI to prevent steeper losses.
  • While the hawkish Fed cut weighed on wider Asia FX sentiment, outflows from bonds and stocks as well a softer yuan have been broader sources of weakness over the past few weeks.
  • Indeed, the 1.2% rally in USDINR since the start of Q4 puts the pair at its most overbought since 2022, as evidenced by the 14-day RSI, though routine central bank intervention has kept INR vols muted compared to that of its EM peers.