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USD/INR Edging Higher, Q1 GDP Out Later Today ​​

INR

Spot USD/INR has opened firmer today, we are back to 77.65, where is close to multi-week highs.

  • There appears to be a cluster of resistance in USD/INR from 77.65 to 77.80. We suspect this reflects RBI concerns around the pace of rupee depreciation.
  • The USD is seeing better broad-based support today though, on higher UST yields, whilst Brent crude is pushing to $123/bbl, so these headwinds could see us test higher in USD/INR spot terms through today's session.
  • Note Q1 GDP prints later today. The market expects growth to ease to 3.9% YoY from 5.4% in Q4 last year.
  • Equity outflows from offshore investors have persisted this month. Net outflows are now a little over $5bn. This is close to the pace of outflows seen in March, which were the largest for the year. This compares with other markets like Korea, which have seen some stabilization in outflow pressures (-$681mn month to date versus -$1326mn at the mid-point of the month).
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