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USD/INR Off Recent Highs

INR

The Rupee is the only EM Asia FX currency trading firmer against the USD today. Moves have been modest though, with USD/INR only 0.1% below yesterday's close at 77.57, while the 1-month NDF sits at 77.83.

  • Some relief for INR has come from steadier oil prices, following a late dip in the NY session.
  • The manufacturing PMI also held up well in May at 54.6, versus 54.7 previously, at least compared to some other economies in the region. This comes after we saw a modest upside surprise for Q1 GDP of 4.1% versus 3.9% expected yesterday.
  • Still, it remains to be seen how much follow through we see. Spot USD/INR has not been meaningfully below 77.50 since mid May. Presumably we will need to see further oil downside to move back below this level.
  • USD/CNH is also back above 6.7000 this afternoon, which INR won't be able to totally ignore.
  • On Friday, the services PMI prints, while the RBI decision is due next Wednesday.
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