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USD/INR Tracks Familiar Ranges; RBI Decision Out This Week

INR

Spot USD/INR is tracking slightly lower in early trade today, after spending much of the Friday session pushing towards 77.70. We currently sit around 77.64/65. The 1 month NDF is just below 77.90.

  • Still we remain very much within recent ranges, the pair has spent very little time outside of the 77.50/77.70 range for the past few weeks.
  • News around a higher than expected rise in oil prices from Saudi Arabia for Asian customers won't have helped sentiment. Brent crude is back above $120/bbl.
  • Covid cases are also drifting higher. India added 4518 cases today, the highest since March 9th of this year. There is some buffer in terms of domestic services activity though, with the PMI print from the end of last week coming close to 59.0 for the sector.
  • The other clear domestic focus point will be this week's RBI decision (out on Wednesday). A further hike is a given, it's just a question of how much. The Bloomberg consensus is at +40bps, taking the policy rate to 4.90%. The cash reserve ratio is expected to be left unchanged at 4.50%.
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