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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
INR
Spot USD/INR is pushing higher, up +0.35% versus yesterday's close. This puts us above 78.60, which is fresh record highs for the pair. The 1-month NDF has also pushed to 78.84, also a fresh high.
- The +$8/bbl gains in Brent crude from last week's lows is clearly weighing. The chart below plots the 1 month USD/INR NDF against Brent crude prices.
- The recent pull back in oil prices saw only limited USD/INR downside, which hints to firm underlying USD demand. As we have noted in recent weeks the RBI has clearly been curbing the rate of rupee depreciation.
- Fresh record lows in the currency will draw the RBI's attention, so we are mindful of intervention risks, but again this appears to be aimed at the rate of depreciation rather than the underlying trend.
- India equities are also weaker in early trade (-0.50%), while onshore bond yields are also higher. More so at the back end though. 10yr at +3bps to 7.44%. We are still below recent highs of just above 7.60%.
Fig 1: USD/INR 1 Month NDF & Brent Crude
Source: MNI - Market News/ Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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