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Rupiah Extends Losses After Bank Indonesia Cuts Rates

IDR

USD/IDR has extended Thursday's gains after Bank Indonesia cut its main policy rate by 25bp, defying expectations that policymakers will not touch policy levers (although it is worth reiterating that as many as 11/26 analysts taking part in BBG survey called for a 25bp cut). The rate has added 39 pips thus far, last trades at IDR14,194.

  • Continued gains past Nov 13 high/23.6% recovery of the Sep 11 - Nov 10 sell-off at IDR14,222/14,227 would give bulls hope for a firmer rebound, opening up the 38.2% Fibonacci level at IDR14,365. Conversely, a swing under Nov 10 low/round figure of IDR14,004/14,000 would signals that bears are regaining control.
  • Indonesia's BoP current account deficit turned into a surplus in Q3, but still missed expectations.
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