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USDCAD TECHS

Heading South

AUDUSD TECHS

Northbound

EURJPY TECHS

Breaches Key Short-Term Support

US TSYS

Late SOFR/Treasury Option Trade

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IDR

Spot USD/IDR has lost ground in line with broader dollar weakening. The rate last changes hands -25 figs at IDR14,968. Downside technical focus falls on Jun 27/21 lows of IDR14,794/14,784. Conversely, bulls look for a bounce above Jul 6 high of IDR15,024.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen -34 figs at IDR15,032. Bears keep an eye on Jul 8 low of IDR14,966, while bulls set their sights on Jul 15 cyclical high of IDR15,190.
  • MYR/IDR remains heavy, last deals at IDR3,366, down ~5 figs on the day. Further losses past Jun 27 low of IDR3,358 would shift bearish focus to the 50-DMA/broken neckline of double bottom pattern at IDR3,347/3,349. Bulls need a break above the IDR3,400 figure to regain the upper hand.
  • SGD/IDR last seen at IDR10,716, up ~40 figs on the day. The high print of Jul 14 at IDR10,763 provides the initial topside target. Bears look for a slide through Jul 12 low of IDR10,636.
  • Indonesia will remove its $200/ton palm oil export levy until the end of August as the government steps up efforts to boost shipments and drain surplus inventories. Producers risk having to leave their oil palm fruits to rot as storage tanks remain completely filled.
  • Bank Indonesia will announce the outcome of the latest monetary policy review this Thursday. The sell-side community is divided, but 18 out of 25 economists polled by Bloomberg expect no change to the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate. The rest forecast a 25bp hike, which would be the first one since November 2018.
  • Indonesia's central bank is one of the last dovish bastions in the region that have kept interest rates unchanged. Bank Indonesia has relied on gradual liquidity withdrawal so far. But pressure to raise the key policy rate keeps piling, after last week's off-cycle policy adjustments announced by colleagues from the Philippines and Singapore.

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