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Rupiah Lags Asia EM Peers With Focus On Bank Indonesia Outlook


Spot USD/IDR has added 25 figs and last deals at IDR15,386, with topside technical focus falling on the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 sell-off/Apr 23, 2020 high at IDR15,574/15,598. Bears look for a pullback towards Sep 30 low of IDR15,150.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +26 figs at IDR15,419. Familiar technical contours are intact. Topside focus is on the 50% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 slide at IDR15,562, while bears look to force a pullback under Oct 5 low of IDR15,158.
  • Palm oil futures have strengthened this morning and last trade +MYR126/MT, extending gains registered in Thursday's after-hours trade. The aggregate BBG Commodity Index is slightly higher today.
  • Offshore investors were net sellers of $20.17mn in Indonesian stocks Thursday, while the Jakarta Comp extended its losing streak. The index re-opened on a firmer footing today, but failed to return above the support-turned-resistance from its 200-DMA and trimmed some gains to last trade +0.3%.
  • Bank Indonesia will announce the outcome of its monetary policy review next Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg so far are almost evenly split, with 5 expecting a 25bp rate rise and 6 looking for a 50bp hike.

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