Rupiah Respects Familiar Ranges, Bank Indonesia Comments Eyed

Spot USD/IDR operates within a range that has defined the scope of price action during the last week or so. The rate last deals -12 figs at IDR14,976, with bears looking for a slide through Jun 27/21 lows of IDR14,794/14,784. Bulls need a clearance of Jul 6 high of IDR15,024 before targeting May 5, 2020 high of IDR15,138.

• USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -18 figs at IDR14,993. Initial downside focus falls on IDR14,966, which limited losses on Jul 8. On the flip side, bulls set their sights on Jul 5 high of IDR15,084.
• MYR/IDR last seen at IDR3,378, barely changed on the day. Bears need a fall through Jun 27 low of IDR3,358 for confirmation of emerging topping impetus. Bulls look for a rally above Jul 1 high/round figure of IDR3,399/3,400.
• SGD/IDR deals at IDR10,653, 4 figs better off. For bulls, a jump above Jul 1 high of IDR10,754 is needed to revive hopes for a renewed rally. Bears look for losses towards the 50-DMA at IDR10,612.
• Indonesia's 5-Year CDS (one of the rupiah vulnerability indicators monitored by Bank Indonesia) keeps widening, reaching a new cyclical high of nearly 158bp today.
• There's a G20 event forum on central bank policy mix today, with Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Juda Agung due to speak.
• Indonesia's June trade data will hit the wires on Friday. It is expected that trade surplus has grown to $3.411bn from $2.900bn recorded in May, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.