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(U1) Tilted Higher


(U1) Uptrend Weakening


Bullard Kickstarts Reflation Unwind Theme


Fresh 2021 Lows

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Spot USD/IDR gapped lower at the re-open and last sits -59 figs at IDR14,260, as the rate has tracked overnight losses in the greenback. This reinforces the signal sent by the recent head & shoulders pattern in defiance of a recently charted golden cross. Bears now target the nearby 50% retracement of the Feb - Apr rally/100-DMA at IDR14,254/14,242. Below there opens the 61.8% Fibo level at IDR14,053. Bulls need to close the opening gap and rise through yesterday's low of IDR14,316.

  • 1-Month NDF sits +22 at IDR14,310, near multi-week lows printed yesterday. A break under Thursday's low of IDR14,285 would open up Feb 25 low of IDR14,080. Topside focus falls on May 4 high of IDR14,531.
  • The Jakarta Post circulated the results of the 2021 Edelman Trust Barometer, which showed that 89% of Indonesians are concerned about losing their jobs, which is more than the 65% worried about potentially contracting coronavirus.
  • Indonesian foreign reserves come out later today, while BI Gov Warjiyo & SOE Min Thohir will both speak on Islamic finance. Danareksa Consumer confidence may also hit today, but there is no fixed time of the release.