Rupiah Steady, Indonesian PMI Improves

USD/IDR steady in early trade this week, shrugging off improvement in local PMI data. The rate last sits at IDR14,038, marginally above neutral levels. A sustained move through the 50-DMA at IDR14,081 would turn focus to Jan 12 high of IDR14,205. On the flip side, a dip through Jan 22 low of IDR13,993 would clear the way to Jan 4 cycle low of IDR13,865.

• Indonesia's Markit M'fing PMI improved to 52.2 in Jan from 51.3 in the prior month, printing in expansionary territory for the third time in a row, with an IHS Markit economist commenting that "the Indonesian manufacturing sector remained on the path to recovery at the start of 2021, with growth of output and new orders among the best in the decade-long survey so far."
• Indonesian Trade Min Lufti said last Friday that the gov't expects a 6.3% Y/Y growth in the country's non-oil and gas exports in 2021 amid global Covid-19 vaccine rollout and its expected consequences for the economy.
• Implied 1-month USD/IDR volatility hovers just above YtD lows, while 1-year tenor sits just above its worst levels since Jul 2020.
• Indonesian docket is headlined by the local CPI report today. Elsewhere, FinMin Indrawati takes part in a meeting on taxation scheme for Indonesia's wealth fund at 11:00 local time, while the Financial System Stability Committee holds a briefing at 16:30.
• Looking further afield, GDP data hits the wires on Friday, while there is no fixed time for the release of Danareksa Consumer Confidence this week.