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Rupiah Tad Weaker Amid Fed Repricing, Despite Some Positive Cross-Asset Signals


Spot USD/IDR has crept higher this morning, with the move being a function of the latest adjustments to Fed rate-hike expectations. The pair changes hands +22 figs at IDR14,914, while the high print of Jul 22 (IDR15,038) still provides the initial bullish target. Bears eye the 50-DMA at IDR14,820 for support.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +10 figs at IDR14,931. A move through Jul 21 high of IDR15,133 would expose Jul 15 high of IDR15,190. On the downside, focus falls on the 50-DMA, which kicks in at IDR14,841.
  • MYR/IDR has added ~4 figs and deals at MYR3,346, with bulls looking for further gains past Jul 28 high of IDR3,373. Bears keep an eye on Aug 1 low of IDR3,331.
  • SGD/IDR trades at IDR10,798, up ~14 figs on the day. A break above Jul 28 high of IDR10,869 to reinstate broader topside momentum. Bears look for a retreat towards the 50-DMA at IDR10,681.
  • Indonesia's 5-year CDS premium has widened 16bp this morning and now sits at 122bp. It has recouped more than a third of its recent pullback from cyclical highs.
  • From a cross-asset perspective: Indonesian stocks trade on a firmer footing, with Jakarta Comp Index up ~0.45%. Palm oil has found a base after a two-day slump and last trades near previous settlement.
  • Indonesia has launched the construction of its new capital and said it expects to complete the first phase of works by 2024.

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