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Rupiah Weakens, Jakarta Comp Falters After BI Lowers 2023 Growth Outlook

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has added 14 figs and last deals at IDR14,857. A clearance of Aug 23/4 highs of IDR14,918/14,939 would open up IDR15,038, a cyclical high printed on Jul 22. On the flip side, losses past Aug 26 low of IDR14,798 would expose the 100-DMA, which intersects at IDR14,710.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +3 figs at IDR14,859. Topside technical focus falls on Aug 22/5 highs of IDR14,953/15,990. Bears look for a dip through Aug 25 low/100-DMA at IDR14,770/14,752.
  • Bank Indonesia lowered its GDP outlook for 2023 to +4.5%-5.3% Y/Y from +4.7%-5.5% and warned that inflation may breach the +2.0%-4.0% Y/Y target range. The central bank said it now sees USD/IDR average at IDR14,800-15,200 next year rather than at IDR14,400-14,800.
  • Palm oil softened on Tuesday amid speculation re: outlook for Malaysian production. Futures don't trade today owing to a public holiday in Kuala Lumpur.
  • Foreign investors bought a net $62.1mn of Indonesian equities on Tuesday, while the Jakarta Comp traded on a firmer footing. The benchmark index dipped this morning.
  • Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium has stabilised near the current levels and last sits at 111bp.
  • Looking ahead, the latest batch of Indonesia's CPI data will be published tomorrow.
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