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RUSSIA: CBR Rate Decision in Focus, No Consensus on Outcome

RUSSIA
  • There is no clear consensus for the outcome of today’s CBR key rate decision (11:30BST/13:30 local time). While some analysts predict that stubbornly high inflation and persistent demand-side pressure will warrant a rate hike at this juncture, others note that the CBR have time yet to assess inflation risks and can therefore keep rates unchanged this month. Governor Nabiullina will hold a press conference at 15:00BST/17:00 local time.
  • See our full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
  • Measures taken by the CBR to cool the consumer credit market have not led to a decrease in lending, because banks have turned to borrowers with higher incomes, Vedomosti report citing the central bank governor. Russian banks' consumer lending grew by 11.72% month-on-month to RUB 1.5trln in May.
  • Elsewhere, President Putin will speak at a plenary session of St. Petersburg economic forum. Kommersant report that the macroeconomic session at the forum was devoted to Russia's goals for the next six years. The economy minister plans to stimulate investment growth, the finance minister intends to keep the budget balanced and the central bank chief plans to develop capital markets.
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