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RUSSIA: CBR Take Measures to Curb Growth of Consumer Lending

RUSSIA
  • The continued pressure of sanctions combined with the authorities' policy to cool the overheating economy will lead to the slowdown of investment growth and GDP in Russia, experts at the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) concluded in a report cited by Vedomosti. In this most likely scenario, GDP growth will slow to 1.5-1.7% per year in 2025-2027 and investment will grow by just 2%.
  • Meanwhile, the inflation surge amid the continued growth of lending increases the chances that the CBR will raise its key interest rate in July, the CMASF said. It estimated inflation for June at 0.8%, which is equivalent to 8.75% in annual terms.
  • The CBR is introducing new requirements in order to curb the growth of households' debt burden and increase banks' capital reserves, Kommersant report. The risk ratio for a number of consumer loans will go up as of September 1. This could slow consumer lending which is growing at an annual rate of 18-20%, the newspaper add.
  • Russia’s manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in June from 54.4 in May. Retail sales, unemployment rate and the final reading of GDP data for Q1 will all cross later in the week.
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