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Russia Energy Clampdown Hampered by Hungarian Opposition

HUNGARY
  • During negotiations on Sunday, EU nations failed to reach unanimity in their approach to Russian sanctions, with Hungary refusing to back a compromised deal, according to sources. Diplomats are set to meet again today, with the source adding that a deal remains possible over the next few days. So far, the proposals detail a ban on seaborne oil from Russia by early 2023, while imports via the Druzhba pipeline would come into effect at a later date.
  • At tomorrow’s rate decision, the NBH are seen slowing the pace of their tightening cycle with a 50bps hike to 5.9%. The central bank is also likely to proceed with a 30bps in the 1W depo rate after pausing at 6.45% in the past month.
  • As inflation remains partly driven by external factors outside of the monetary policy realm, Hungarian policymakers have been trying to stick with monthly intervention on the 1W depo facility as hiking too aggressively is not likely to have any ST impact on HUF and would also accelerate the economic slowdown. Full MNI preview with summary of sell-side views here: https://marketnews.com/mni-nbh-preview-may-2022-nb...
  • No major releases due today, with focus on tomorrow’s PPI release and the NBH decision.
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