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Russia May Not Cut Full 500kbpd Crude Output In March

OIL

Russia is likely to cut its oil output this much less than the announced 500kbpd because of robust export flows and domestic throughput according to Kpler analyst Viktor Katona.

  • Output is likely to decline by 350kbpd on the month to 10.7mbpd in March, Kpler estimates.
  • Production levels could dip to 10.65mbpd in April, because of seasonal refinery maintenance, before rebounding in June.
  • Russian refinery runs in 2023 may average about 5.45mbpd compared with 5.5mbpd now, yet “the downside coming from lower utilization is still not equivalent” to the planned output cuts.
  • Russian crude flows rebounded last week with India ramping up oil imports from Russia. In the seven days to March 10, Russia’s shipments recovered 40% of the previous weeks’ loss, rising to 3.33mbpd according to Bloomberg.
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