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Russia Seaborne Crude Exports Edge Lower Before EU Ban

OIL

Russian seaborne crude exports could start to fall in the coming weeks ahead of the EU ban on the crude supplies from Dec 5. Russian crude supply to Europe (excluding Turkey) is unchanged on the week but has more than halved since February down to approximately 0.75mbpd. Weekly vessel tracking data from Bloomberg shows Russian seaborn crude exports at a five-week low in the week to Oct 21.

  • There is also uncertainty over supplies to India with two refiners pausing Russian spot purchases waiting for clarification of the impact of the sanctions on finding ships and making payments for cargoes.
  • Due to the transport time, cargoes from Primorsk or Ust-Luga heading for India would need to leave before Nov 7 to arrive before the sanctions start and to avoid the risk of insurance cover ending while at sea.

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