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Russia to Miss LNG Target with Only 36.3m tonnes of Exports by 2026: Rystad

LNG
Energy BulletsCommodities

Russia is expected to miss its ambitious LNG production target to commission 100m tonnes by 2030 by as much as 60m tonnes amid sanctions and challenges in securing vessels and long-term contracts, according to Rystad Energy.

  • Russia is forecast to commission about 68m tonnes of capacity by 2035, with actual LNG production around 40mtpa. Novatek projects of Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG-2, and Murmansk LNG projects will account for almost 80% of that total.
  • Government support and incentives around financing and research and development and tax breaks will support planned projects.
  • “Russian oil exports may have escaped the worst of the impact from Western sanctions. Piped gas exports have suffered greatly, but the LNG industry has been hit the hardest. The Russian government is still optimistic about the country’s output, but without a significant change in fortunes, reaching the targets may be nothing more than a pipe dream,” said Swapnil Babele at Rystad.
  • Russia aims to boost LNG exports by 33% between 2022 and 2026, to 44mtpa or to 39mtpa under a conservative-case scenario. Rystad forecast exports reaching only 36.3m tonnes by 2026.

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Russia is expected to miss its ambitious LNG production target to commission 100m tonnes by 2030 by as much as 60m tonnes amid sanctions and challenges in securing vessels and long-term contracts, according to Rystad Energy.

  • Russia is forecast to commission about 68m tonnes of capacity by 2035, with actual LNG production around 40mtpa. Novatek projects of Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG-2, and Murmansk LNG projects will account for almost 80% of that total.
  • Government support and incentives around financing and research and development and tax breaks will support planned projects.
  • “Russian oil exports may have escaped the worst of the impact from Western sanctions. Piped gas exports have suffered greatly, but the LNG industry has been hit the hardest. The Russian government is still optimistic about the country’s output, but without a significant change in fortunes, reaching the targets may be nothing more than a pipe dream,” said Swapnil Babele at Rystad.
  • Russia aims to boost LNG exports by 33% between 2022 and 2026, to 44mtpa or to 39mtpa under a conservative-case scenario. Rystad forecast exports reaching only 36.3m tonnes by 2026.

Keep reading...Show less