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Russia War Keeps Mkts on Edge,  Into Weekend; Strong Jobs Data

US TSYS

After initial two-way trade US Tsy futures broke narrow upside range after Feb employment data showed job gains +678k vs. +415k est, AHE declines MoM from 0.61% to 0.03.

  • Overall data appears "mildly less inflationary, at least from the supply side" one desk commented. Decent data but markets remained on edge as Russia war in Ukraine entered day nine.
  • Equities still trading weaker after FI close, SPX eminis off late morning lows (ESH2 4282.50L) to near middle of the range at 4307.5 at the moment -- still above first technical support of 4227.50/4101.75 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger. Markets remain on edge going into the weekend.
  • Late session risk aversion: Tsys turn higher, additional selling in stocks after headlines noted access to Twitter and Facebook blocked in Russia -- social media outlets a non-state media source of news for Russians. WTI spiked to session highs of $115.36 in late trade as WH spokesperson said banning Russia oil imports had been discussed.
  • While FI markets traded strong all day -- short end remained under heavy pressure: lead quarterly Eurodlr futures made new low for yr at 99.15 (-0.140), well past prior low of 99.205 from Feb 10 as 50bp liftoff pricing gains momentum -- 25bp hike on March 16 a foregone conclusion after Fed Chairman Powell sees as appropriate (Thu's Senate testimony).
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 4bps at 1.4899%, 5-Yr is down 9.5bps at 1.6372%, 10-Yr is down 11bps at 1.7307%, and 30-Yr is down 6.7bps at 2.1533%.
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