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TURKEY: Year-End Inflation Estimate Falls Marginally in Latest CBRT Survey

TURKEY
  • Turkey's inflation estimate in the next 12-months fell to 27.49% in September from 28.71% in August, according to the CBRT’s latest survey of market participants. The inflation estimate in the next 24-months also fell, to 18.38% from 19.30%, while the year-end inflation estimate decreased marginally, to 43.14% from 43.31%. The full-year GDP growth estimate was lowered to 3.2% from 3.4%.
  • Citing analysts, Ekonomi dispute the allegation that increased short positions at the derivatives market are driving losses on the stock market, pointing to the short-sale ban and interest on risk-free deposits.
  • There are no other major data releases scheduled for today. Looking ahead to next week, the CBRT rate decision takes focus on Thursday, where the central bank is expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50%. However, some sell-side analysts are bringing forward estimates of when the CBRT will deliver its first rate cut to as early as November owing to positive inflation developments.
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