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Russian Oil to Remain India’s Cheapest Option: Kpler


Russian oil will continue to be the cheapest option for Indian buyers, despite the rising price of Urals crude, according to Kpler via Kommersant.

  • Kpler predicts that India will remain the largest importer of Russian crude, taking around 1.6m b/d in September.
  • Urals remains competitive as the alternatives of Arab Heavy and Iraqi Basrah Medium are around $7-$7.5/b more expensive.
  • Russia’s decision to cut exports by 300k b/d will keep its availability to supply volumes to India tight, which could see the Urals discount to Brent remain narrower.
  • “In these circumstances, Russia will likely compete for a minimal discount, while India will seek a return to a discount of approximately $7 per barrel,” according to Victor Katona, Chief Oil Analyst at Kpler.
  • Refinery maintenance in India during the autumn is expected to take around 5mn bbl of capacity offline, which could see imports from Russia soften.

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