Russian Refinery Drone Strikes Could Impact 50kb/d of Diesel Exports

Drone strikes on Russian refineries last week could impact about 50kb/d of gasoil/diesel exports, according to Wood Mackenzie on Mar. 15 via Bloomberg.

• The attack on the Ryazan refinery removed about 40-50kb/d of gasoil/diesel production. About 60kb/d of gasoil/diesel output has been lost at the Norsi refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. Neither refinery is fully offline.
• Russia exported 0.8-1mb/d of diesel/gasoil in 2023 with production of about 2mb/d.

• “The latest wave of Ukraine drone attacks on the Russian refinery system is likely to have a more meaningful impact” than the January/ February attacks. Recent strikes have hit the primary refining processing units, whereas the strikes in January only impacted secondary units and tank storage.
• The attacks are ultimately “still unlikely to move the needle or impact sentiment around the softening global diesel/gasoil market.”
• Ukraine would target the key product export terminal infrastructure at the ports of Primorsk or Novorossiysk for more impact on revenue.