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Russians Still Buying Record Quantities of FX

RUSSIA
  • Reports of explosions and attacks across Crimea continue to circulate, with Western media flagging that the blasts flag Russia’s vulnerabilities as the war persists beyond six months. WSJ writes that the blasts were set off by Ukrainian saboteurs, according to a senior Ukrainian government official. Russian officials also blamed sabotage, their first official acknowledgment of a major strike in the region.
  • Elsewhere, Bloomberg report that Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian supply lines linking the city of Kherson. Ukraine forces continue to deploy long range HIMARS missiles to blow up bridges used to resupply Russian troops dug in on Kherson’s west bank.
  • RBC write that Russians were still buying record amounts of FX July via stock exchanges, according to CBR data cited in RBC. The pieces writes that the purchases continue despite high commission charges and numerous structural obstacles to using FX within Russia itself.
  • Kommersant report that the Economy Ministry expect GDP to contract 4.2% in 2022, an upward revision from the 7.8% contraction forecast in May. The forecast sees GDP returning to pre-crisis levels by end-2025. Inflation is seen at 13.4% in 2022 (down from a previous forecast of 17.6%) with CBR rates expected to fall to 5.5% in 2023.
  • The Federal Statistics Service will report producer prices for July at 1700BST/1200ET (7pm local time) with figures expected at 9.4% Y/Y and 1.0% M/M in what would be the lowest yearly rate since February 2021.
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