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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TRANSPORTATION
- Q324 (3M to Dec 23) Rev: EUR 2.7bn, up 17% YoY, in-line with consensus.
- Q324 adj-PAT: EU15mn, a 93% decrease YoY (9m to Dec +39%) vs, BBG consensus of EUR 71mn
- Q324 Operating Exp +26% YoY to EU2.2bn driven by staffing expenses and 35% higher fuel costs
- Q324 Customer Numbers: 41.4mn, a 7.5% increase YoY.
- Fuel hedging strategy extended to cover 65% of FY25 at USD 79 per barrel, expected to save EUR 450mn.
- Net cash was EUR 0.15bn at 31 Dec, boosted by the delay of aircraft deliveries into Q4, despite despite EUR 1.9bn capex and EUR 1.1bn debt repayments. Board recognises need to keep prudent cash levels before returning excess to shareholders.
- Outlook revised: FY24 traffic target of ~183.5mn, with PAT guidance narrowed to EUR 1.85bn to EUR 1.95bn (from EUR 1.95bn to EUR 2.05bn) due to lower load factors and higher costs.
- Summer EU industry capacity to be constrained at 92/93% of pre-Covid levels. Plans to expand with up to 174 B737 aircraft by summer but faces delivery risks.
- They assume the fleet expansion and other CapEx will be funded via cash flow though they remain open to debt funding.
- CapEx for FY25 to EUR 1.3bn and just under 1bn by FY26 meaning very high FCF at current profitability levels.
- Bonds streaming tighter to midswaps, 2026s 5bps tighter in early trading.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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