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S. Africa's Army Chief In Moscow For "Goodwill Visit," FinMin Tables Tsy's Budget Vote

SOUTH AFRICA
  • The choir of voices calling for more aggressive interest-rate action from the SARB has grown louder after USD/ZAR soared to record highs last week. Absa said in a research note that they expect a 50bp rate hike next week. They added that "another big interest rate hike at this stage could crush consumer spending, but at this stage, we believe the SARB will stick to its hawkish anti-inflation stance," with the policy rate set to remain on hold thereafter until March 2024. BNP Paribas wrote that the SARB will raise interest rates by 50bp next week as geopolitical tensions amplify challenges to the ZAR, with another 25bp hike likely coming up in July.
  • The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) said that a delegation of generals led by army chief Lawrence Mbatha is in Moscow but played down the trip as a "goodwill visit," which "was planned well in advance." By contrast, Russia appeared to play up its strategic importance, describing it as "combat readiness talks." The visit of senior military officials to Moscow comes as South Africa is trying to defuse tensions with the West over its stance on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
  • Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will table the National Treasury's Budget Vote in parliament at 15:30BST/16:30SAST. His speech will focus on the departmental programmes and budget, review achievements and progress and outline the service delivery commitments for the year ahead.
  • South Africa's Q1 unemployment data will hit the wires at 10:30BST/11:30SAST. The official jobless rate may have edged higher to 33.0% from 32.7% recorded in 4Q2022, according to a median estimate in a Bloomberg poll of economists.
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