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Safe Havens Ignore Geopol Risks; Crude Rises & Oil-Tied FX Hitch Ride

FOREX

The Japanese yen and Swiss franc brought up the rear in G10 FX space. A recovery in U.S. e-mini futures sapped strength from safe haven currencies, with participants eyeing Wednesday's monetary policy decision from the Fed. Further escalation in geopolitical tensions over Ukraine failed to generate any significant safe haven bid.

  • USD/JPY climbed over the Tokyo fix and held the bulk of its initial gains, as U.S. Tsy yields rose across the curve in cash trade.
  • Firmer oil prices supported CAD and NOK. The combination of enthusiasm about a potential recovery in demand as Omicron countermeasures are lifted and a failed missile strike on the UAE helped keep crude buoyant.
  • Spot USD/CNH hovered just above support from Dec 8 cycle low of CNH6.3305, the rate's lowest point since 2018. However, the yuan reference rate virtually matched average estimate, suggesting that the PBOC are comfortable with redback appreciation. The central bank also lowered the interest rate applied to 14-Day Reverse Repo operations by 10bp, adding to a suite of rate cuts delivered last week.
  • A suite of PMI figures from across the globe will keep hitting the wires today, while the central bank speaker slate is virtually empty.
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