Sanchez Gov't Survives Confidence Vote, But Election Outlook Still Poor

The gov't of PM Pedro Sanchez has survived a confidence vote in the Congress of Deputies earlier today. The vote was brought about by the right-wing nationalist Vox in what has been viewed as a misstep by the third-largest party in parliament ahead of the general election due by December at the latest. A total of 201 members of the Congress of Deputies voted against the censure motion, well above the 175-vote majority margin.

• The main opposition centre-right People's Party (PP) abstained on the vote, while all other opposition parties such as the centrist Citizens and the far-left Catalan nationalist CUP voted against the motion.
• The vote came about due to a slew of allegations from Vox against Sanchez's leftist minority administration, with objections ranging new legislation on sexual offences to plans to amend sedition laws in relation to the Catalan independence movement. Instead, Sanchez was able to use the debate on the vote to publicly extol the achievements of his gov't to a sizeable audience.
• Opinion polling shows that ahead of the general election, the potential right-wing coalition of the PP and Vox would hold a narrow majority in the Congress. Seat projections from March show this potential gov't winning between 181-186 deputies, enough to cross the 176-seat majority threshold. While the two parties work together in the regional gov't of Castile and Leon, there is no guarantee they would be able to form a stable gov't at the national level.

Source: Electopanel, CIS, InvyMark, Simple Logica, SocioMetrica, Sigma Dos, GESOP, NC Report, DYM, 40dB, Celeste-Tel, Hamalgama Metrica, MNI