Santander 1Q24 Preview: Poland & Guidance Updates

Santander (SANTAN: A2 pos/A+/A) results out 30-Apr at 0600 – peer reporting has been positive (Spain and UK) and some updates on Poland, alongside any revisions to guidance (which was affirmed at the AGM (22-Mar) are likely to be focal points.

• Indications from Sabadell, Bankinter and today’s BBVA results have been positive for domestic Spanish banking with muted volumes (as the economy delevers) seeing solid margin and asset quality performance. Further, indications from Lloyds and Barclays are relatively good for the UK business.
• Santander was implicated in an Iranian sanctions probe in the press and there has been negative news on CHF mortgages in Poland which has an impact here. We doubt we’ll see much substantive on the former but expect guidance on the latter to be forthcoming.
• SANTAN spreads are a c.36 tighter YTD, in line with €IG bank peers and its equity has been a strong performer (+25% YTD, SX7P +16%), so there’s a lot of expectation built in to equity pricing.
• Results last time around (31-Jan) were a good beat vs. consensus but EPS estimates are are only up 2-3% since with revenue estimates up even less.

Results are due around 0600 with conf call at 0900 (London time) at https://wavedw.santandergroup.net/WS/2404PRANA/Registro