March 01, 2023 16:03 GMT
Santander: Economy Continues To Show Signs Of Resilience
- The Imacec for January (0.4% y/y) was at the high end of the market estimates, with margin increases in almost all sectors. Thus, in seasonally adjusted terms, the economy had a significant rise compared to December, which reinforces what was observed at the end of last year.
- This greater dynamism of the economy is explained by a series of factors, including less political uncertainty, a depreciated real exchange rate and high export prices, as well as more accelerated execution of public spending. It also occurs in a context where world activity has picked up, supported by the opening process in China.
- In January, and as anticipated by the INE data, mining had an important advance (1% m/m seasonally adjusted), after a couple of months with declines in the seasonally adjusted series. This was influenced by a recovery in copper production, as well as a good performance by non-metallic mining, particularly lithium, which benefits from high prices.
- The upside surprise suggests that the economy could have a less intense drop than previously estimated. Santander will update the projection after March 20, following the Central Bank publishes the official closing of GDP for 2022, the evolution of its components, and the revised seasonally adjusted series.