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Santander See 7.75% Monetary Policy Rate By Year-End

CHILE
  • In Santander’s base scenario, they consider that the first BCCh rate cut would take place in the July meeting. Subsequently, there would be successive falls of significant magnitude -between 75 bp and 100 bp-, which would take the TPM to levels of 7.75% at the end of the year.
  • This projection is in the middle of the 8% estimated by the median of those surveyed in the EEA and the estimate of the forward curve based on market rates at the close of this report, which stands at 7.5%.
  • This trajectory would change significantly if a new pension fund withdrawal is approved and/or international financial tensions worsen. Uncertainty would raise risk premiums and depreciate the currency, which, in a context of greater boost to aggregate demand due to the new injection of liquidity, would make inflation more persistent, further delaying the monetary normalization process.
  • As a reminder the next BCCh decision is on April 04. Earlier this week, BCCh President Rosanna Costa reaffirmed the latest guidance that the central bank intends to keep rates at current levels until there are clear signs that the process of convergence of inflation to target has been consolidated. Costa emphasised that “more than ever it is important to keep in mind the significant costs involved in maintaining high inflation, costs that increase as the phenomenon persists over time”.
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