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SARB Hold Priced into USD/ZAR, Tone & Forecast Revisions the Key Focus

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR opens lower, broadly in line with $-side price action and EM high-beta peers amid tepid global risk sentiment post-FOMC minutes.
  • Spot has erased most of the move higher following the perceivably hawkish minutes,
  • exhibiting a willingness among the MPC to start a dialogue on QE tapering, possibly by the late August Jackson Hole Conference amid concerns of rising inflation.
  • Today's focus however, will be on the SARB meeting.
  • Gov Kganyago is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.5%, reiterating a balanced CPI outlook to focus on medium-term disinflationary factors, despite yesterday's upside surprise.
  • With the hold largely priced into markets, attention will be paid to tone RE inflation trajectory and forecast revisions, which may see slight downside pressure on inflation for 2022/23 and upwards pressure on 1Q21 growth.
  • Sell-side remains constructive on ZAR prospects, noting the possibility to extend past fair value at 14.00 in the near-term, supported by further USD weakness.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.9844, Sup2: 13.9520, Res1: 14.1536, Res2: 14.1879
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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