Saudi Energy Minister Counters OPEC Seaborne Increase Narrative

Some more context on the higher oil volumes on the water out of OPEC nations from our coverage this week:

A number of vessel tracking outlets have highlighted stronger oil volumes on the water in the last month from a number of OPEC+ nations which have been cited as one of the key factors weighing on oil in November.

• TankerTrackers for example said earlier that crude oil exports by Russia, US, Guyana and Saudi are averaging higher over the past 28 days than Iran, Venezuela and Kazakhstan are averaging lower. (also citing non-OPEC+ nations impact)
• Kpler figures show Saudi is doing its bit – its crude exports rose Sep & Oct but are ~1mn bpd down y/y. Meanwhile, Russia is ~700k bpd higher y/y. Russian crude exports are down ~300 kbd from peaks earlier this year but up ~500kbd form July/August lows.
• On those sorts of figures Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier that some participants are misunderstanding the correlation between rising OPEC exports and actual production. Shipments show seasonal fluctuations with a drop in summer typically followed by a rise in September and October he said.
• Goldman Sachs’ head of oil research Daan Struyven said earlier this week that the banks view is that the recent uptick in OPEC seaborne oil flows on the market will be temporary and “likely reflects destocking” as OPEC nations look to cash in on higher prices.