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Saudi Oil Cuts to Continue in 2024: Goldman

OIL

Goldman Sachs estimates Saudi Arabia’s crude production will stay flat at 9mbpd during 1Q24 – meaning an extension to voluntary cuts – before starting to rise by 0.25mbpd per quarter from 2Q24, the bank said in a note.

  • The bank sees Saudi Arabia’s production to return only gradually by the first quarter of 2025.
  • This seems now more likely amid the declines in oil prices the last two weeks, the limited evidence for large draws in global commercial visible oil inventories over the past three months and this weekend’s attacks in Israel by Hamaz, the bank said.
  • The bank believes the escalating conflict in Gaza reduces the likelihood of a near-term normalization in Saudi-Israeli relations.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday afternoon (before the attacks) that “Saudi Arabia has told the White House it would be willing to boost oil production early next year if crude prices are high—a move aimed at winning goodwill in Congress for a deal in which the kingdom would recognize Israel and in return get a defense pact with Washington, Saudi and US officials said”, cited by Goldman.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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