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Saving Ratio Dipped In June As Excess Savings Still Whittled Down [2/2]

US DATA
  • On the nominal side, income growth (0.3% M/M, cons 0.5) or specifically disposable income (also 0.3% M/M) didn’t keep up with the 0.5% M/M increase in spending, as the household savings ratio slipped 0.3pts to 4.3%.
  • The latter only reverses the May increase and remains off the mid- to late- 2022 levels averaging in the low 3s.
  • It doesn’t materially change the trend though: savings at this rate continue to whittle away at “excess savings” built up through the pandemic when compared to prior trends but those excess savings are still large.
  • Q1 data suggested those excess savings were still around $0.9T having peaked at $2.3T in 2021 and falling by a bit less than $250B per quarter. That will have slowed some more in Q2 but it could still be nearly a year until this theoretical stock is depleted.

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