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Scaling Back Friday's Support

US TSYS
Tsy futures trading weaker (30YY 3.5872 +.0421) at the start of a shortened Christmas holiday week (early Friday close for Globex at 1300ET, Monday full close w/ Globex reopening 1700ET).
  • Futures reversing much of Fri's late support despite hawkish comments from SF Fed Daly and Cleveland Fed Mester. Daly:
    • "We see a slowdown coming in a way that would be predicted by raising interest rates, and we still have a long way to go," she told the American Enterprise Institute. Daly said she boosted her inflation projection in the Fed's dot plots largely because of the tight labor market, and also said that while goods inflation is slowing, core services prices will be more stubborn.
  • Bonds near late overnight lows on light volume across the board (TUH3 leads w/ under 145k), Yield curves steeper w/ 2s10s +3.683 at -66.551 (-65.032 high).
  • No scheduled Fed speakers today, limited data with NAHB Housing Market Index (34 est) at 1000ET; US Tsy auctions: $54B 13W and $45B 26W bills at 1130ET.
  • Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23 steady at 32.9bp, Mar'23 cumulative 46.5bp to 4.798%, May'23 51.5bp to 4.847%, terminal slips to 4.84% in Jun'23.
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