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SCANDIS: Limited NOKSEK Reaction To Norway Inflation/Sweden Activity Data

SCANDIS
CEEMEABulletSwedenNorwayGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

Very limited reaction in NOKSEK to this morning’s Norway CPI/Sweden activity data. The cross reached a low of 0.9636 (BBG data) but has since returned to pre-data levels.

  • Norwegian CPI-ATE was 3.1% Y/Y in September (vs 3.2% cons and prior). Norges Bank had forecasted 3.3% Y/Y in the September MPR. At first glance, this still might not be enough of a downward surprise for Norges Bank to signal a chance of a December cut at the November 7 meeting, given the bank’s hawkish stance this year.
  • Meanwhile, the August monthly Swedish GDP indicator was 1.1% M/M (vs a four-analyst strong consensus of 0.5%). Last month’s reading was revised a tenth lower.
  • We don’t want to put too much stock in the monthly activity data, which can be volatile and is prone to revisions, but on net this doesn’t support a 50bp Riksbank cut in November when taken alongside the flash inflation data earlier this week.
  • The quarterly Swedish GDP indicator (due for Q3 on October 29) has the same drawbacks as the monthly version, but will still be an important input ahead of the November 7 meeting alongside the September labour market data.
  • Riksbank Governor Thedeen is scheduled to speak at the bottom of the hour. 
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Very limited reaction in NOKSEK to this morning’s Norway CPI/Sweden activity data. The cross reached a low of 0.9636 (BBG data) but has since returned to pre-data levels.

  • Norwegian CPI-ATE was 3.1% Y/Y in September (vs 3.2% cons and prior). Norges Bank had forecasted 3.3% Y/Y in the September MPR. At first glance, this still might not be enough of a downward surprise for Norges Bank to signal a chance of a December cut at the November 7 meeting, given the bank’s hawkish stance this year.
  • Meanwhile, the August monthly Swedish GDP indicator was 1.1% M/M (vs a four-analyst strong consensus of 0.5%). Last month’s reading was revised a tenth lower.
  • We don’t want to put too much stock in the monthly activity data, which can be volatile and is prone to revisions, but on net this doesn’t support a 50bp Riksbank cut in November when taken alongside the flash inflation data earlier this week.
  • The quarterly Swedish GDP indicator (due for Q3 on October 29) has the same drawbacks as the monthly version, but will still be an important input ahead of the November 7 meeting alongside the September labour market data.
  • Riksbank Governor Thedeen is scheduled to speak at the bottom of the hour.