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SCANDIS: NOKSEK Begins To Consolidate Above 20-day EMA As Oil Rallies

SCANDIS
CEEMEABulletSwedenNorwayMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

The Norwegian krone has found support from this morning’s uptick in crude oil prices, after headlines suggesting the terms of the recently-struck Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire deal have been breached. This has helped NOKSEK begin to consolidate above support at the 20-day EMA (0.9857). 

  • The pullback in NOKSEK earlier this week allowed an overbought technical condition to unwind, potentially setting the scene for a renewed push towards parity and the July 4 high at 1.0016.
  • However, we noted on Monday that oil price movements will likely be a key source of volatility for NOKSEK in the short-term, and this remains true.
  • Today’s Swedish data and updated borrowing forecasts had little impact on SEK, but there may be more scope for a market move on tomorrow’s final Q3 GDP figure.
  • The (often unreliable) flash GDP release was weaker-than-expected at -0.1% Q/Q, but SEB and Danske Bank expect an upward revision. If this materializes, it may provide an intraday headwind to the recovery in NOKSEK.
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The Norwegian krone has found support from this morning’s uptick in crude oil prices, after headlines suggesting the terms of the recently-struck Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire deal have been breached. This has helped NOKSEK begin to consolidate above support at the 20-day EMA (0.9857). 

  • The pullback in NOKSEK earlier this week allowed an overbought technical condition to unwind, potentially setting the scene for a renewed push towards parity and the July 4 high at 1.0016.
  • However, we noted on Monday that oil price movements will likely be a key source of volatility for NOKSEK in the short-term, and this remains true.
  • Today’s Swedish data and updated borrowing forecasts had little impact on SEK, but there may be more scope for a market move on tomorrow’s final Q3 GDP figure.
  • The (often unreliable) flash GDP release was weaker-than-expected at -0.1% Q/Q, but SEB and Danske Bank expect an upward revision. If this materializes, it may provide an intraday headwind to the recovery in NOKSEK.