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SCANDIS: NOKSEK Pulls Back From Highs

SCANDIS
BulletForeign Exchange Bullets

NOKSEK has pulled back from highs, unable to sustain yesterday’s move above the 1.01 handle. Profit-taking is likely playing a role here, after the cross rallied ~1.5% between May 20 – 27.

  • The SEK outperforms the broader G10 basket, with EURSEK 0.5% lower and USDSEK 0.7% lower at typing. EURSEK eyes the 200-day EMA at 11.4615, with firmer support seen at 11.4266 (Jan 19 high and mid-April support).
  • Other than Riksbank Governor Thedéen re-iterating that a June cut is unlikely, there haven’t been many clear drivers for the SEK’s intraday outperformance, with the latest pullback in European equities not having a material impact on the krona at typing.
  • We have noted above that sell-side month-end rebalancing models point to broad-based USD selling in May, while SEB’s estimates suggest Swedish portfolio managers also face a need to buy SEK.
  • This week’s Scandinavian calendar picks up on Thursday (Swedish Q1 GDP, Economic Tendency and Debt Office forecasts) and Friday (Norway registered unemployment, Norges Bank FX purchases).
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NOKSEK has pulled back from highs, unable to sustain yesterday’s move above the 1.01 handle. Profit-taking is likely playing a role here, after the cross rallied ~1.5% between May 20 – 27.

  • The SEK outperforms the broader G10 basket, with EURSEK 0.5% lower and USDSEK 0.7% lower at typing. EURSEK eyes the 200-day EMA at 11.4615, with firmer support seen at 11.4266 (Jan 19 high and mid-April support).
  • Other than Riksbank Governor Thedéen re-iterating that a June cut is unlikely, there haven’t been many clear drivers for the SEK’s intraday outperformance, with the latest pullback in European equities not having a material impact on the krona at typing.
  • We have noted above that sell-side month-end rebalancing models point to broad-based USD selling in May, while SEB’s estimates suggest Swedish portfolio managers also face a need to buy SEK.
  • This week’s Scandinavian calendar picks up on Thursday (Swedish Q1 GDP, Economic Tendency and Debt Office forecasts) and Friday (Norway registered unemployment, Norges Bank FX purchases).