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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Euribor futures are the underperformers this morning after ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stated in an interview published on the ECB's website yesterday after the close that "A rate increase in July is possible in my view. We of course have to wait and see how the data evolve up to the time of the decision. The first interest rate hike will in any case not take place until after the end of net asset purchases; we have committed to that." Since yesterday's close Euribor Red futures are the biggest movers, up to 9.5 ticks lower, with Greens and Blues down 7.0-8.5 ticks. Markets now are almost fully pricing a July hike (23bp priced) with a further 45bp priced cumulatively for September and then 73bp by October (i.e. the market is almost fully pricing 3 back-to-back hikes).
- Eurodollar and SONIA futures are down 1-3 ticks across the strip ahead of the Fed today and the BOE tomorrow.
- For the Fed, markets price in around 52bp for tonight, 110bp by June, 161bp by July (3 meetings), 206bp by September (4 meetings) and 259bp by year-end (6 meetings). So effectively 50bp for four meetings, then two 25bp hikes into year-end (with upside risks at each meeting priced).
- For the BOE markets price 31bp for tomorrow (around 25% probability of 50bp with 25bp fully priced), 65bp by June (2 meetings), 101bp by August (3 meetings), 149bp by November (5 meetings) and 175bp by February 2023 (7 meetings).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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