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Scotia Above Consensus For CAD CPI

CANADA
  • Scotia are at the top end of a relatively narrow analyst range of 2.9-3.1% Y/Y for headline CPI in June.
  • Their estimate is based off headline CPI increasing 0.3% M/M in both SA and NSA terms, but with traditional core up 0.4% M/M seasonally adjusted for a 3-month rate pushing to circa 3.9% from 3.6% annualized.
  • Among the things to watch for will be service price inflation that has remained hot, and whether the prior month’s deceleration in goods price inflation will persist.
  • However, they see this week’s CPI report as probably just a placeholder that sparks market volatility without settling positioning for the BoC’s next potential move.

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