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Scotia: Above Consensus For CPI With Core Services In Driving Seat

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Scotia see core CPI at 0.6% M/M (6.6% Y/Y)
  • Used vehicle prices declined a bit, but the 4% weight on the category probably means at most a 0.1 ppt drag on total CPI. New vehicle prices were very little changed with a negligible effect on total CPI.
  • Shelter costs—namely OER—will probably remain hot but with lagging downside effects of slipping repeat-sale house prices probably ahead into 2023.
  • A major driver, however, is likely to be ongoing strong gains in service price inflation. ‘Core’ services excluding shelter comprise about one-quarter of the CPI basket and have unique challenges such as staffing and capacity issues continuing to drive hot inflation.
  • Headline CPI seen at 0.8% M/M (8.1% Y/Y) with a 5% M/M SA increase in gas prices whilst food retail prices are expected to remain hot in a continuation of large gains dating back to early 2021.
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