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Scotiabank and JPMorgan Both Forecast +25BP BCRP Hike

PERU
  • Scotiabank’s economist expects another 25bps reference rate hike by BCRP on Thursday. Peru's core inflation rate climbed by another 0.5% m/m NSA which is above seasonal norms for the month, and this raised the y/y rate to 5.7% for its highest since July 2000. Protests that erupted following the December 7th arrest of former President Castillo have disrupted transportation networks and supply chains which adds to upside risks to inflation. Those protests have returned this month.
  • JPMorgan expect 2023 inflation to experience a downward trend, converging to 3.8%oya in December and 5.2% on average for the year. In terms of monetary policy, JPMorgan expect the BCRP to hike again by 25bp this week. If so, the policy rate level would reach 7.75%, in what could be the last hike of the current cycle.
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