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Scotiabank Expect BCRP To Cut 25bp As Weak GDP Offsets Upside CPI Inflation Surprise

PERU
  • Scotiabank expect the BCRP will continue at its steady 25bp pace of rate cuts this week with little to pull in either direction. In mid-February, December GDP was a big negative surprise, showing a 0.7% y/y decline in the final month of 2023 against the median forecast of +0.4% and Scotiabank’s call for little change in output.
  • However, they note that CPI data for February surprised in the opposite direction, coming in at 3.3% y/y, overshooting the consensus of 2.9% and their higher 3.2% forecast.
  • Political noise has risen as well, specifically the recent moves at Petroperú and scheduled protests against the National Board of Justice. They note, however, that at least late-2023 trends are teeing up an improvement on the growth front in Q1-24.
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