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Scotiabank Expecting BanRep To Accelerate Easing Pace

COLOMBIA
  • Scotiabank have noted that while the Colombian economy is in an orderly adjustment process, the decline in investment and the lower demand for durable and semi-durable goods have favoured the reduction in the closure of the current account deficit gap. They expect the economy to maintain weak momentum in the coming quarters, with annual growth rates below 2% in 2023 and 2024, as domestic demand adjusts to more sustainable levels. The investment part of the economy provides the most uncertainty.
  • However, Scotiabank concede the deceleration in the dynamics of economic activity has allowed inflation to decelerate at a faster pace to 9.28% by the end of 2023, allowing BanRep to start the easing cycle in December. As Scotiabank expect inflation to decelerate further to 4.4%, they also expect BanRep to accelerate the easing cycle, reaching 7% in December this year. Today’s data also contributes to the discussion of a potential 50 bps rate cut to 12.50% in January’s BanRep meeting, which is their base case scenario.
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