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CHILE: Scotiabank Expects BCCh To Raise GDP Forecasts On Strong Consumption

CHILE
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Within today’s IMACEC data, Scotiabank notes that trade grew for the third consecutive month, accumulating a 7.1% expansion over the period. In January, trade rose by 3.4% m/m, thanks to the positive contribution of wholesale trade and the good performance of retail trade.
  • Regarding non-mining activity, the strong 1.4% m/m growth, would indicate that the activity gap is closed or very close to being closed. In this scenario, the BCCh has a somewhat easier task sustaining the neutral bias introduced at last January’s meeting.
  • Scotia notes that around 1/3 of the trade expansion would be explained by non-residents (from Argentina) who have supported the purchase of durable goods ex-autos and some services.
  • Despite a likely seasonally adjusted contraction in February, caused mainly by the energy blackout, the better performance of consumption and upward revision in investment in January would justify an upward revision in 2025 GDP growth projections in the March IPoM.
  • They expect the BCCh to increase its 2025 GDP growth projection to between 2.25% and 2.5%, from 2% currently. As a comparison, Scotiabank maintains a 2.5% GDP forecast for this year, incorporating total investment growth of no less than 6%.
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  • Within today’s IMACEC data, Scotiabank notes that trade grew for the third consecutive month, accumulating a 7.1% expansion over the period. In January, trade rose by 3.4% m/m, thanks to the positive contribution of wholesale trade and the good performance of retail trade.
  • Regarding non-mining activity, the strong 1.4% m/m growth, would indicate that the activity gap is closed or very close to being closed. In this scenario, the BCCh has a somewhat easier task sustaining the neutral bias introduced at last January’s meeting.
  • Scotia notes that around 1/3 of the trade expansion would be explained by non-residents (from Argentina) who have supported the purchase of durable goods ex-autos and some services.
  • Despite a likely seasonally adjusted contraction in February, caused mainly by the energy blackout, the better performance of consumption and upward revision in investment in January would justify an upward revision in 2025 GDP growth projections in the March IPoM.
  • They expect the BCCh to increase its 2025 GDP growth projection to between 2.25% and 2.5%, from 2% currently. As a comparison, Scotiabank maintains a 2.5% GDP forecast for this year, incorporating total investment growth of no less than 6%.