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Scotiabank on BCRP: Peru Could Experience Renewed Inflation Pressure

PERU
  • Prior to the Fed meeting it had been looking as if the central bank might be signalling an end to the hiking cycle. In September it had slowed the pace of increases to just +25bps versus expectations for a 50bps hike after a year-long string of such moves had been delivered.
  • Data released since then pointed to higher unemployment and slower than expected growth in overall economic activity according to July’s monthly gauge. However, inflation remains high and may be about to experience renewed upward pressure. That’s because like virtually everyone else, Peru’s currency stumbled anew after the Fed’s September 21st hike/guidance and is once again testing the weakest point since the start of the year. The inflation pass-through implications may prompt another hike.
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  • Prior to the Fed meeting it had been looking as if the central bank might be signalling an end to the hiking cycle. In September it had slowed the pace of increases to just +25bps versus expectations for a 50bps hike after a year-long string of such moves had been delivered.
  • Data released since then pointed to higher unemployment and slower than expected growth in overall economic activity according to July’s monthly gauge. However, inflation remains high and may be about to experience renewed upward pressure. That’s because like virtually everyone else, Peru’s currency stumbled anew after the Fed’s September 21st hike/guidance and is once again testing the weakest point since the start of the year. The inflation pass-through implications may prompt another hike.