Core Goods Pipeline Pressures Pick Up On 3m/3m Basis

Swedish PPI fell 0.4% M/M in June, with energy base effects helping pull the annual rate down to 0.8% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior). The price index for domestic supply saw similar dynamics, falling 0.4% M/M and rising 1.0% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior).

• On a 3m/3m basis, the price index for domestic supply rose 0.8% (vs 0.9% prior), although the index excluding energy rose 2.7% (vs 2.1% prior).
• This acceleration reflected an increase in the 3m/3m rates of capital goods (1.7% vs 1.4% prior), consumer goods ex-food (2.4% vs 1.6% prior) and food (2.8% vs 2.2% prior).
• The pipeline prices suggest core goods CPIF disinflation should stall in the coming months. In June, goods CPIF inflation was -0.7% M/M and 0.4% Y/Y (0.6% in May).
• The domestic supply index combines domestic producer prices and imported prices, thus is a better gauge of CPI pipeline pressures.
• Elsewhere, lending from monetary financial institutions to households rose 0.7% in June (vs 0.7% prior), while deposit and lending continued to ease (in line with Riksbank signalling for further monetary easing in 2024).